By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN
FOLLOW ON X: @LonnPhillips
It's LSU-Auburn week, with Hugh Freeze's faux "Tygers" traveling to Baton Rouge for an epic night battle against our 4-2 Tigers (still controlling their SEC & CFP destiny in their own hands as of now), all set to kickoff at a rocking Tiger Stadium.....the scene of the crime where many outrageous, unforgettable LSU vs Auburn clashes have taken place.
Will the final SEC West edition of this classic series be one of the ultimate showdowns between these two eternal rivals???
Death Valley....
.....at night....
.....things have a tendency to get wild, become stark raving mad....suddenly out of control....and now, due to LSU's 2023 defense, infinitely potent offense, and penchant for rollercoaster, back & forth games (usually involving double digit comebacks), I'm getting a feeling this Saturday evening could be a feverish, Helm's Deep battle that could rage long into the night.
As we always do, we begin by analyzing our opponents, 2023 Auburn, a team that can be defined as a mixed bag of black licorice, a few orange Starbursts, and rotten human flesh all stirred together.
From a culture establishment & booster backing perspective, Hugh Freeze has seemingly hit the ground running as a new War Eagle man, commanding respect as well as temporary patience from his own players & fanbase (which is rare among recent times regarding Auburn's streaky toxicity).
However, the Tygers' first season coach is experiencing an initial slice of on-field resistance & media critique right now, losing multiple games as they sit at 3-2 after a bye week.
Both losses showcased wildly contrasting sides: a close, competitive loss to Georgia (27-20) and a flat out embarrassment vs A&M (27-10).
Auburn may be rebuilding their locker room culture while trying to establish their brand on the recruiting trail, still, they've looked rugged:
Winning 14-10 over Cal, averaging just 156.2 passing yards, alongside 202 on the ground per game (over 4 of 5 weeks, no QB passed for more than 19 attempts).
They've won their 3 games (Cal, Samford, UMass) through defense, the legs of Jacquez Hunter, usual QB Payton Thorne, Brian Battle and of course specialty athlete "QB" Robby Ashford (all 4 players over 150 yards rushing, Hunter leading the way at just over 200 yards).
Ashford, who started vs LSU last season, was relegated behind Michigan St transfer QB Payton Thorne (just 18 total passing attempts, 8 completions & 1 TD, although he's scored a team-leading 5 TDs across a mere 79 total snaps & 24 overall attempts....whacky numbers for a player pushed to the periphery).
Taking Ashford's job, transfer QB Thorne hasn't glittered himself in gold, either.
Favoring intermediary or underneath routes due to a limited range & arm strength, the Michigan State transfer tossed 643 yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 9 big time throws & 2 turnover worthy throws aside from his 4 INTs.
Putting Auburn's inept aerial game on full display, Thorne recorded 3 starting appearances where he passed for less than 100 yards (trainwrecks such as his 44 yard abandon vs A&M, paltry 94 vs Cal, or barely reaching over 100 vs UMass).
Much like Ashford, Thorne is a far more effective rusher than passer, rushing for 92 yards on Georgia at one point this last month.
It goes without saying, Auburn will do whatever it takes to establish their running game....it is all they have......Phil Montgomery's offense are nearly one dimensional outside of the random underneath or intermediary reception....later on, we dive into whether LSU's defense can handle Auburn's random passing & concerted, obsessive rushing attack.
As for the real Tigers, LSU are heading into Week 6 dodging a few serious injury scares at Missouri, both QB Jayden Daniels and center Charles Turner went down carrying painful problems in the ribs and ankle.
Luckily, X-Rays were negative for Turner, while Daniels appears to be able to grit through what LSUOdyssey.com reported is a deep rib contusion, rather than an actual suspected break.
After yet another porous defensive display, Matt House's group finally adjusted enough for a gutty second half outing, making just enough plays to get the win.
Because of the continuing theme of negative defensive play surrounding this squad, specifically at DB, we could very well encounter changes across LSU's defensive lineup: Bradyn Swinson, Jordan Jefferson, Dashawn Womack, and Ryan Yaites all earned extended reps for next week.....expect some interesting names to secure heavier playing time due to their trending showings vs Mizzou.
Plus, we could see DB Sage Ryan perhaps moved around the formation to safety, as Head Coach Brian Kelly maintains #15 is one of his "best 11 players"; Coach Kelly may be considering where best to maximize his former 5 star talent, rather than sticking with him at nickel.
Whit Weeks should retain his starting linebacker spot over Omar Speights, despite the Oregon State transfer's return from injury (he was absent for Miss State, Arkansas and Mizzou, all 3 LSU wins, Weeks gathering 22 tackles in those 3 appearances).
Speights last appeared as a starter over Weeks vs Ole Miss, the Tigers' last defeat.......is there a correlation???
Hell yes there is.
Stop benching Weeks.
As a linebackers coach and defensive coordinator, Matt House should've been the last person on planet earth who would bench Whit Weeks....a freshman who is physically and mentally ready, posting a team-leading 9 tackles, 1 TFL and 0.5 sack on his SEC debut @ Mississippi State......
....as a linebackers coach, how could you leave one of your fastest defenders on the sidelines for an entire half against the quickest, most aggressive offensive attack LSU will play all season?
The truth is, House and Speights have a very strong bond that goes back to 2017 when House recruited him for Kentucky; That bond may have cost LSU a game against Ole Miss, and if we see Speights starting over Weeks again, you'll know why.
Maason Smith is playing a ton of snaps since his return, 78 plays vs Ole Miss (only 10 plays off), and was still failing to fully impress since Grambling.
Then, vs Mizzou this past weekend, Maason had his first breakout game of the season, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, alongside a team-leading 4 pressures; Also at DT, Jordan Jefferson continues to be extremely productive in busting asses at or behind the line of scrimmage (2nd concerning tackles for loss at 3.5).
Defensively, Auburn could be the right opponent to bolster Matt House's squad:
Against Payton Thorne's limited to terrible passing quality, sparse but at times effective scrambling, Freeze's stable of 100 yard backs, or even Ashford's dual threat versatility, will LSU's highly criticized defense finally pick up the pieces, building off their improved 2nd half @ Missouri???
As we sit here right now, it would be near unfathomable for me to foresee our secondary giving up more than 250 through the air against Thorne, Ashford, Jim Varney or whoever Freeze deploys to throw the ball.
As bad as they've been, this is an offense that simply cannot establish or sustain a passing game.
Right now, Auburn haven't had a single receiver tally 100 yards in any of their 5 games, including against low ranked opponents (Jay Fair's 93 yards is tops).
Their three leading receivers?
Fair at 196 yards, Rivaldo Fairweather 145 overall, and Shane Hooks at 106, just 4 touchdowns total between the entire receiving corps (5 including a 32 yard score from TE Micah Riley-Ducker's only catch of the season).
Fair, their leading target man, received just 27 overall targets his direction.....remember, Malik Nabers posted 13 catches from 13 targets against Mississippi State alone.
In fact, Malik Nabers' season total of 771 is just 10 yards shy of tying Auburn's entire offense concerning receiving output (counting all pass catchers).
By the way, a young man who would be their most talented receiver, former Tiger / Rummel High Raider Koy Moore caught only 2 passes for 18 yards in just 3 appearances this fall.
If House's unit can't hold Auburn under 300 passing yards, we're talking about another heart-stopping finish for our Tigers amid the pitch black night of Baton Rouge. LSU's defense has already allowed 300 yard performances vs 3 of their 6 opposition QBs.
Regardless, the one area that really intrigues me is LSU's ability to stop the run.
Of course, I'm eyes wide open at 3am concerning our secondary's disastrous, historic lows....I could actually foresee Auburn achieving around 250-260 at most on our DBs thanks to a few profound busts.
But Auburn's lack of breakaway receiving talent, as well as poor quarterback play, will likely afford Steeples & Cooks' DBs their most underwhelming opponent thus far.
We won't even break it down any further: there's no Keon Coleman, no Luther Burden, no Jaxson Dart or Jordan Travis on the field facing LSU this Saturday night....there is no excuse for allowing an aerial deluge....none whatsoever....and if it happens, you better believe I'll get as hot as I ever have before.....x100....
One major miscalculation you'd make by saying "Auburn suck throwing the ball, so LSU will have a better game defensively"????
House's defense haven't been good against the run, either....
Surrendering 160 per game around 5 yards per touch, Tiger defenders aren't as bad at stopping the run as they've become against the pass, yet they've given up three 100 yard rushing performances throughout their 6 games, allowing less than 100 vs Mississippi State, before succumbing to a complete "run stopping Karen" moment vs Ole Miss:
Lit up for 317 yards on the ground (Judkins at 177, Benteley with 90 from just 7 carries), our 2023 defeat to Ole Miss was and will forever be thoroughly embarrassing. Each offensive avenue effortlessly set up the other due to our "shitting-their-pants defense" that cracked up before an unforgiving world.
Echoing that exact defensive disgrace throughout the first 2 1/2 quarters against Missouri this past weekend, as LSU edged the homecoming queens 49-39, Mizzou's Schrader racked up over 100 yards rushing and made it look mostly easy.
LSU were lucky Mizzou went away from the run (114 carries on 13 rushes from Schrader), but you can bet your life on this:
If Auburn catch us sleeping early against the run, they'll bleed us dry, wearing us down until we either force turnovers, somehow cause havoc in the backfield, get off the field on 3rd down, or scream "uncle" over and over until they stop the beatings.
At the same time, offensive coordinator Phil Montgomery's play-calling, squad depth, and overall execution is so checkered through 5 games, they only recorded a single 100 yard rusher: QB Payton Thorne...
Be worried about Phil Montgomery's offense coming to life against Matt House's defense.......we need to see a continuation of some progress before we can fully back that unit....even against a pisspoor offense.
PART II: LSU OFFENSE vs AUBURN DEFENSE + MORE
COMING VERY SOON!
By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN
©️ 2023 Uninterrupted Writings Inc, a subsidiary of Uninterrupted Media LLC