LSU vs SOUTH CAROLINA PREVIEW PT.II: 5 FACTORS THAT DECIDE THE GAME

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By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN

@LonnPhillips

I was so close to predicting an LSU loss for our preseason picks back in late August, eventually picking a double digit Tigers win on the road......but before LSUOdyssey broke the news on some recent defensive changes, I was teetering on the brink of calling a 2nd Tigers defeat in their first 3 games....

I'm flip flopping like John Kerry at a 2004 presidential debate, although now I'm sensing a team and staff that are looking for answers, starting to push the right buttons, and hopefully beginning to find themselves ahead of this colossal showdown.

A game touted as the Biggest Game of the Shane Beamer era around South Carolina nation, with College GameDay on the scene, the Gamecocks will have a big time stage for a potential upset, accepting plenty of pressure to make it happen.

Beamer is looking to take that next step with his program, and his team faces an LSU squad that is hungry to get this victory, although this is a team playing their 3rd game in 13 days, suffered key injuries to their best performing running back, #2 wide receiver & #1 defensive tackle, now trying to find their identity ahead of what is a season-defining game within a crucial "prove it" year 3 under Brian Kelly.

Check out our first preview piece HERE! Right now for Part II, I'm diving into 5 factors that will decide the game:

1. LSU's DEFENSIVE CHANGES

To ignite a fire within his defense, Blake Baker made some tactical & personnel switches this week....moves that should not only please the fanbase, but also kickstart this squad's quest for a successful season:

Starting sophomore steambreather Whit Weeks & moving Harold Perkins out of his inside linebacker role & positioning him at star, it's an alteration which could change the Tigers' underperforming fortunes:

Unleashing the ultimate version of Perkins, one of the game's most creative & electrifying defensive playmakers in space, placing him alongside, in front or deeper than Weeks' speed demon tackling authority, Baker should strike a solid combination that will pay dividends....though sadly, due to key injuries for starters Jacobian Guillory at defensive tackle, defensive end Dashawn Womack & safety Jordan Allen, will we even see this instinctual switch make a difference concerning the overall result???

2. KENNARD & STEWART VS CAMPBELL & JONES:

WILL SC TRY TO RUSH INSIDE VS THE GUARDS INSTEAD?

I've heard many analysts point out the significance of the battle between South Carolina's future 1st-2nd round picks on the edge, Kyle Kennard (4.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks) & Dylan Stewart (2.5 TFLs & 2.5 sacks) vs LSU's bookend tackles Will Campbell & Emery Jones Jr (0 sacks allowed, 1 QB hit & 2 total pressures combined between the duo)......but I guarantee South Carolina will do everything to occupy Jones & Campbell with linebackers or assorted blitzers while stunting their freakish edge men from outside to inside, putting them in more favorable matchups vs guards Garrett Dellinger, Miles Frazier & red shirt freshman center DJ Chester.....

Of course, we know this is a monumental game for LSU's season, and yet it is also a key contest for their offensive line, almost to the level I can't envision an LSU win despite another poor offensive line display.

Needing to generate rhythm and physical dominance within the trenches for the first time in 3 games.....the ball is in their court to make it a reality.

Still, this week, they'll also take on the sternest pass rushing / run-stuffing test they're likely to endure all year.

3. WILL LSU BE ABLE TO RUN THE BALL....OR PASS SOUTH CAROLINA TO DEATH?

After only 116 rushing yards across 2 games....against average run stopping defenses, LSU's offensive line, blocking scheme, and running backs all need to get it together or the Tigers will lose a 2nd game out of their first 3.

I'm not necessarily meaning "get it together" as in running the ball, either.....they've shown they can't formulate the run straight out of the gates....yet the pass blocking from our offensive line, coupled with QB Garrett Nussmeier leading the SEC in completions & TD passes, alongside a strong stable of pass catchers, including each one of our 3 headline running backs, I think LSU fans will witness a passing onslaught vs South Carolina, setting up the ground game as Joe Sloan desperately looks to gain some type of rushing traction in the name of balance....just in reverse order.

But this may not be a game where balance is ultimately required, a fight where LSU's best route to victory may likely be through continuously feeding their pass catchers, and allowing their brilliant first year starting QB to control proceedings.

If you're Coach Kelly, you want Nuss with the football in his hands....you want him wearing down South Carolina's aggressive defense, through the air or on the ground (if possible), as well as maintaining a constant stranglehold on the clock.......which will in turn keep Blake Baker's defense well rested on the sidelines, and ultimately guide LSU to victory.

4. WILL JACOBIAN GUILLORY BE THAT MUCH OF AN IMMEDIATE LOSS?

How crucial will Jacobian Guillory's season ending injury be for the Tigers' depleted 2024 D-line????

We'll find out quickly, as South Carolina's running game could devastate Bo Davis' D-line; if unchecked, it could be a long morning for Bo Davis & Kevin Peoples' front 6 / 7.

While still yet to really hit a spark vs Old Dominion & Kentucky, and featuring two run-first quarterbacks, LaNorris Sellers, former Auburn nemesis & "wildcat" QB Robby Ashford backing up one of the SEC's best running backs of the past few years, former Arkansas RB Raheim "Rocket" Sanders, the Gamecocks' offense isn't quite where they want to be right now (2.8 yards per carry, 126.5 rushing yards per game), yet they're still capable of destroying LSU's front.

The numbers are solid, but not explosive (Rocket Sanders at 88 yards & LaNorris Sellers at 68 yards vs Old Dominion, while neither rushed over 54 yards vs Kentucky; Robby Ashford clocks only 26 yards on the season & Jared Brown has been extremely effective but doesn't get the ball much, only 2 rushes for 27 yards & 4 catches for 50 yards)......

......up against LSU's interior D-line of Gio Paez, Ahmad Breaux, Shone Washington, Jay'viar Suggs, this is going to be absolutely intriguing to see how these D-linemen hold up in Big Tank's absence, especially against a potentially dynamic rushing attack.

5. ZAVION THOMAS' RETURN GAME PRODUCTION

Zavion Thomas' 114 return yards vs Nicholls State was the most single game return yards at LSU since Trey Palmer's 118 yards on 2 returns vs South Carolina back in 2020.....which was also the last time LSU scored a special teams touchdown.....

Could lightning strike once again, with Thomas proving to be a game changer as a return specialist???

Also worth noting, LSU scored a few key special teams touchdowns vs the Cocks during their series history, including the epic fake field goal Matt Flynn flip to kicker Colt David for the rushing touchdown....a play of blissful magic for the ages.

If Thomas is able to gather over 80 return yards, I'd suggest LSU has an 85% chance of winning the game....that's how critical it is to hand Nussmeier a short field.

FRIDAY 9/13!!!

FINAL SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION SHOW & HURRICANE RELIEF FUNDRAISER @ 7pm Cen. LIVE ON LSUOdyssey.com

By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN

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