LSU vs FLORIDA PREVIEW & PREDICTION

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By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN

Once again, for the second time over the first 3 weeks of their 2025 gauntlet, LSU face another stern test, a home SEC opener vs Billy Napier's Florida Gators.

Fresh off a turgid 16-15 loss to South Florida, the 1-1 Gators now face a true back against the wall moment.

Brian Kelly's Tigers will aim to serve a cold dish of vengeance upon Napier, Lagway and Co following their disastrous defeat last fall, losing to an injury-ravaged 4-5 Florida team in the Swamp, a defeat that cost LSU any chance at the College Football Playoff once & for all.

I don't know what it is about LSU vs Florida, but these rampaging contests never work out the way either side expects, with thrown shoes keeping teams alive, some historic record-breaking performances, and quite often a smattering of all-action footballing conquest of the likes SEC rivalries are made of.

The 2025 edition will all come down to LSU's ability to stuff or simply limit Napier's obsessive running game philosophies....bread and butter schemes that routinely hurt the Tigers.

Surrendering 177 rushing yards in 2023 and 210 on the ground in 2022, those two games also featured insane scorelines: two shootout wins for Brian Kelly (52-35 and 45-35), but then there is last year's bruising loss (27-16)...a defeat that still stings.

But don't expect high scorelines in this upcoming 2025 edition....as Florida's defense is ranked 25th while Blake Baker's crew rank 12th nationally, shutting down Clemson and nearly completing a shut out against Louisiana Tech this past Saturday, both defenses should dictate terms.

LSU's SEC bout against Florida will provide no shortage of motivation for a pair of former Gators on Baker's defense, Jack Pyburn and Jakheem Jackson, as well as DBs Coach Corey Raymond...the longtime DBU Miyagi who endured a 2 year-long sabbatical in Gainesville.

Because Clemson and Louisiana Tech both lacked an even vaguely threatening rushing attack, Florida will be the first true test for Blake Baker's rushing defense, as Napier's Gators feature an elite running back tandem through Jadan Baugh (673 yards, 133 carries, 7 rushing TDs, 5.1 per carry last fall) and Jakobi Jackson (509 yards, 95 attempts, 7 rushing TDs, averaging 5.4 per carry) rushing behind a steady offensive line.

After two games, Baugh is averaging 7.3 per carry, 197 yards from 27 attempts, resembling the first truly good, possibly great running back LSU's medieval defense will face this campaign.

Not to mention Florida QB DJ Lagway hurt LSU last season through his ability to escape pressure, extend plays, and still work the ball down the field. Lagway has an elite arm, capable of hurting LSU when evading Baker's signature blitzes.

More than Clemson, far more than Louisiana Tech, containment will be the name of the game for Blake Baker's defense, centering around the sideline to sideline pace of Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins' versatile abilities attacking quarterbacks as a chillin villain spy, fiery pass rusher, or in coverage.

Over all 3 games of the Kelly v Napier era, LSU allowed exactly 500 rushing yards for an average of 166 total rushing yards (last fall, LSU improved against the run, only giving up 113).

If Baker's Bayou Bandits can contain Baugh & Jackson, plus finish off sack opportunities on Lagway, they give their offense every chance to edge ahead in what should be a game where every possession & every point matters.

About LSU's offense.....

Scoring just 40 combined points & 4 touchdowns over their first 2 games, Joe Sloan, Nussmeier & Co must turn their current offensive malaise into at least a sneak peek of the juggernaut they could be....

Facing a faster, more athletic, and higher pedigree defense than either of their first two opponents, it's time to get serious or LSU's offense could very well be responsible for the Tigers' first loss of the year. And with unbridled skill position weapons, an elite & experienced quarterback, years-long coaching continuity....it is unacceptable for LSU's offense to look so stale, unproductive, and exceedingly lethargic....but it is far more damning when Sloan's unit has no right costing the Tigers a football game.

Luckily, there is a chance LSU's priceless center Braelin Moore will start....a major boost after what looked to be a serious injury.

Despite suffering an ankle sprain on the first play vs Louisiana Tech, Head Coach Brian Kelly called his status "questionable" and "day to day" during Monday's press conference.

Against a nasty Gators defensive front, Nussmeier will need his offensive line kingpin to play through the pain & give this offense some kind of daylight amid the dark deluge of ineptitude we've witnessed.

Saturday night's showdown vs the Gators will particularly be a big game for Cortez Hankton's receiving corps to stand up and be counted, make explosive plays downfield, and help alleviate the pressure on LSU's backfield....an area that was disturbed constantly by Louisiana Tech during Braelin Moore's absence, piling up 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss.

I think we're set for another low scoring outing by LSU's offense, but will the performance go up a few levels???

Will Nussmeier lock in behind a possible shakeup at center???

Will we see a sustained rushing game???

Will the Tigers start hitting (or calling) down field shots??

Here's one final thought: for whatever any of us expect heading into any LSU vs Florida showdown, expect the unexpected...the mind-melting insanity of an SEC candle burning at both ends...the feverish symptoms of doing cocaine with Lane Kiffin and Dan Mullen on board a tour bus driven by a naked Jon Gruden...these are the weird scenes inside the gold mine...the repeated near-acid flashbacks any LSU fan receives from the triumphantly tragic tumult of the scalp-hunting LSU vs Florida series.

PREDICTION

I expect a lower scoring, defensive slug fest in comparison to the shootouts of recent campaigns, with LSU finding themselves in a good, old fashioned SEC street fight...yet another percussive festival of clattering blood & bone for the 3rd straight week of 2025.

This is going to be a palpitating contest....a back and forth siege of the heart as LSU and Florida pummel each other's offenses.

Regardless of the fact I anticipate a rebound outing by Joe Sloan's offense (at least as far as the passing game is concerned), as well as a dominant defensive performance by Blake Baker's Bayou Bandits, I will ride with my original preseason pick.

Florida won't control the game whatsoever, however they will continously pull off one big play after another to stay in it, defying an incredible Death Valley atmosphere and grabbing their much needed victory and handing Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers their first loss of 2025.

LSU 26

FLORIDA 29

by LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN

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